Using time-series analysis techniques to enhance the understanding of musculoskeletal injury in Thoroughbred racehorses.
Authors: Johnston Anna S, Riggs Christopher M, Cogger Naomi, Benschop Jackie, Rogers Chris W, Rosanowski Sarah M
Journal: Equine veterinary journal
Summary
# Editorial Summary Whilst racing authorities routinely document injuries sustained during competition, training-related musculoskeletal damage often goes unrecorded, and previous epidemiological investigations have overlooked temporal patterns that might reveal modifiable risk factors. Johnston and colleagues analysed eight years of veterinary records from the Hong Kong Jockey Club, examining 1471 musculoskeletal injuries (605 fractures, 550 superficial digital flexor tendon injuries, and 316 suspensory ligament injuries) alongside monthly training population data using time-series methodology to identify trends and cyclical patterns. A clear seasonal effect emerged for fracture incidence, rising from October (0.25 per 1000 horses) through to May (0.71 per 1000 horses) to coincide with the racing season, whilst SDFT and suspensory ligament injuries showed less predictable patterns, though both peaked markedly in 2017. These findings suggest that coordinating injury prevention strategies with seasonal demand cycles—such as modifying training intensity during high-risk months or adjusting farriery and physiotherapy protocols—may help practitioners reduce fracture rates, whilst the recent spike in soft tissue injuries warrants targeted investigation into contemporary training practices, track surfaces, or horse populations. Time-series analysis applied to injury surveillance data offers a more sophisticated epidemiological tool than traditional cross-sectional approaches, enabling the profession to move beyond identifying *which* horses are injured to understanding *when* and *why* injury clusters occur.
Read the full abstract on PubMed
Practical Takeaways
- •Fracture risk increases significantly during the racing season (October through July), suggesting targeted injury prevention strategies should intensify during these months
- •SDFT and fracture injury rates have substantially increased since 2017 at HKJC, warranting investigation of changes in training protocols, track conditions, or horse populations during this period
- •Time-series monitoring of injury trends enables identification of high-risk periods to focus future risk factor studies and inform evidence-based management decisions
Key Findings
- •1,471 injuries recorded over 8 seasons comprised 605 fractures (41.1%), 550 SDFT injuries (37.4%), and 316 suspensory ligament injuries (21.5%)
- •Fracture incidence demonstrated seasonality, increasing from October (0.25 per 1000 horses) to May (0.71 per 1000 horses), coinciding with racing season
- •Greatest SDFT injury incidence risk of 14.8 per 1000 horses and fracture risk of 1.3 per 1000 horses occurred since 2017
- •Time-series analysis identified peaks and cyclical patterns in MSI incidence that can inform targeted epidemiological investigations