Rapid risk assessment tool (RRAT) to prioritize emerging and re-emerging livestock diseases for risk management.
Authors: de Vos Clazien J, Petie Ronald, van Klink Ed G M, Swanenburg Manon
Journal: Frontiers in veterinary science
Summary
# Editorial Summary: Rapid Risk Assessment Tool for Livestock Disease Management De Vos and colleagues developed a dynamic database system to quantify incursion risk for emerging and re-emerging livestock diseases, addressing a critical gap in preparedness as globalisation and international trade accelerate disease spread. The Rapid Risk Assessment Tool (RRAT) integrates worldwide outbreak data, introduction routes, and disease-specific parameters to generate semi-quantitative risk scores across multiple transmission pathways—specifically legal live animal trade, legal animal product trade, and illegal carriage by air travellers—with the Netherlands serving as the initial case study for ten key livestock diseases. Analysis of 2016–2018 data revealed markedly different risk profiles by route: bovine tuberculosis posed greatest incursion risk through legal channels, whereas classical swine fever ranked highest via illegal importation; African swine fever risk increased substantially over the assessment period while equine infectious anemia declined, underscoring the importance of temporal tracking. The tool's relational structure automatically updates when new epidemiological data becomes available, enabling practitioners and risk managers to identify which source countries and specific trade flows drive disease incursion risk, allowing targeted surveillance design and resource allocation to highest-priority pathogens. For equine professionals, this framework exemplifies how systematic risk assessment can translate complex international trade patterns into actionable intelligence for disease prevention, particularly relevant given the tool's demonstrated capacity to detect shifting risk trajectories in diseases affecting horses.
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Practical Takeaways
- •Risk managers should monitor and update disease incursion assessments regularly, as risk profiles change significantly over time (ASF increased, EIA decreased during study period)
- •Different diseases require different biosecurity focus—legal trade routes need monitoring for TB while illegal importation poses greater risk for CSF and other diseases
- •Detailed risk analysis by country and trade flow source can help design targeted surveillance programs for high-risk disease introductions
Key Findings
- •Legal trade routes posed highest incursion risk for bovine tuberculosis while illegal routes posed highest risk for classical swine fever in Netherlands 2016-2018
- •African swine fever incursion risk increased over the study period while equine infectious anemia risk decreased
- •Overall incursion risk via illegal routes was lower than via legal trade routes for livestock diseases assessed
- •RRAT tool successfully prioritizes multiple livestock diseases and identifies specific countries and trade flows contributing most to disease risk