Spatio-Temporal Identification of Areas Suitable for West Nile Disease in the Mediterranean Basin and Central Europe.
Authors: Conte Annamaria, Candeloro Luca, Ippoliti Carla, Monaco Federica, De Massis Fabrizio, Bruno Rossana, Di Sabatino Daria, Danzetta Maria Luisa, Benjelloun Abdennasser, Belkadi Bouchra, El Harrak Mehdi, Declich Silvia, Rizzo Caterina, Hammami Salah, Ben Hassine Thameur, Calistri Paolo, Savini Giovanni
Journal: PloS one
Summary
West Nile virus poses an evolving threat to equine and human populations across the Mediterranean and Central Europe, yet predicting where and when transmission risk peaks remains challenging for veterinary and public health authorities seeking to implement timely preventive measures. Researchers used the Mahalanobis Distance statistical method to map ecologically suitable areas for WNV transmission by analysing environmental variables—including altitude, temperature patterns, vegetation indices, and slope—alongside approximately 270 human and equine clinical cases reported across Italy, Greece, Portugal, Morocco, and Tunisia between 2008 and 2012. The analysis revealed distinct seasonal patterns: North African nations (Tunisia, Libya, Egypt) and Cyprus showed peak suitability May–July, whilst European regions including Italy, France, Spain, and the Balkans became increasingly suitable August–October, with transmission risk persisting through December in coastal North African areas. By producing monthly risk maps that account for mosquito population dynamics, this work provides veterinary practitioners and public health planners with a spatially and temporally granular tool for anticipating WNV emergence and deploying surveillance or protective resources—such as vector control programmes or vaccination schedules—during high-risk windows. Farriers and equine clinicians working in identified high-risk zones during peak months should heighten awareness of WNV clinical presentations and consider insect control measures on premises during summer and autumn months, whilst those in Mediterranean coastal areas may need year-round vigilance.
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Practical Takeaways
- •Equine practitioners in Mediterranean and Balkan regions should increase clinical vigilance for WNV during late summer and autumn months (August-October) when environmental conditions favour transmission
- •Geographic risk mapping based on seasonal climate patterns can inform timing of preventive measures, surveillance intensification, and client education about mosquito-borne disease risks in specific regions
- •Understanding that WNV risk is geographically and seasonally variable allows targeted resource allocation for monitoring and prevention efforts rather than year-round blanket approaches
Key Findings
- •Environmental and climatic variables (altitude, temperature, vegetation indices) can identify geographical areas suitable for WNV transmission using Mahalanobis Distance analysis
- •Peak WNV transmission suitability occurs May-July in North Africa (Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Cyprus) and August-October in Southern Europe and Balkans
- •Seasonal modeling incorporating mosquito population dynamics enables monthly prediction of WNV risk areas across Mediterranean basin and Central Europe
- •Suitable conditions for WNV persistence extend into December in coastal North African regions (Morocco, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Israel)