Analysis of Failure to Finish a Race in a Cohort of Thoroughbred Racehorses in New Zealand.
Authors: Tanner Jasmine, Rogers Chris, Bolwell Charlotte, Cogger Naomi, Gee Erica, Mcllwraith Wayne
Journal: Animals : an open access journal from MDPI
Summary
# Editorial Summary New Zealand's six-year dataset of 188,615 flat-racing starts revealed a failure-to-finish incidence of 2.88 per 1000 starts, encompassing falls, pull-ups, and lost riders—outcomes that warrant investigation as potential markers of underlying musculoskeletal or performance issues. Researchers employed mixed-effects Poisson regression to identify associations between horse characteristics (ratings bands reflecting experience and competitive level), race variables (distance and field size), and environmental factors (season) with failure-to-finish events; notably, horses with lower ratings bands and those competing over longer distances showed increased risk of pulling up or falling. Apprentice jockeys demonstrated a protective effect against lost-rider incidents, whilst seasonal variation emerged as significant only for the lost-rider outcome, suggesting breeding season and environmental conditions may influence both equine welfare and riding stability. The New Zealand failure-to-finish rate proved substantially lower than international figures for race-day catastrophic injury, indicating either protective management practices or definitional differences worth exploring further. For practitioners, these findings underscore that race-day incidents result from multifactorial interactions rather than single causes, emphasising the need for targeted risk assessment tailored to individual horse experience levels, race distance suitability, and environmental conditions to optimise both performance and welfare outcomes.
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Practical Takeaways
- •Race distance and horse experience level (ratings bands) are modifiable risk factors that racing authorities should consider when structuring races to reduce failures to finish
- •Seasonal variations in failure to finish rates suggest environmental or management factors may be optimizable to improve horse welfare and race completion rates
- •The low failure to finish rate relative to catastrophic injury rates internationally indicates New Zealand racing conditions or practices may provide protective factors worth investigating for broader application
Key Findings
- •Overall incidence of failure to finish was 2.88 per 1000 horse starts (95% CI 2.64-3.12) across 188,615 race starts over 6 seasons
- •Race distance, larger field size, season, and ratings bands were significantly associated with failure to finish in univariable analysis
- •In multivariable analysis, race distance and ratings bands were associated with pulled-up/fell outcomes, while season, apprentice allowances and ratings bands were associated with lost rider
- •Failure to finish rate in New Zealand was lower than international figures for race day catastrophic injury, suggesting multifactorial causes