Risk factors for horse falls in New Zealand Thoroughbred jumps racing.
Authors: Legg K A, Bolwell C F, Gee E K, Gibson M J, Rogers C W
Journal: Veterinary journal (London, England : 1997)
Summary
# Editorial Summary: Risk Factors for Horse Falls in New Zealand Thoroughbred Jumps Racing Between 2005 and 2019, New Zealand jumps racing recorded a fall incidence of 42 per 1000 starts across 13,648 race-day starts, with steeplechase races proving substantially more hazardous than hurdle racing (1.6 times higher risk). Using Poisson regression analysis, researchers identified that falls clustered dramatically towards the end of races: the final three jumps carried 3.1 times greater fall risk in hurdles and 4.4 times in steeplechase compared with the opening three jumps. Both jockey age and horse experience emerged as protective factors reducing fall incidence, whilst longer steeplechase races and autumn racing conditions paradoxically increased fall rates—a finding that warrants further investigation into fatigue and ground conditions. Most significantly, a regulatory change permitting jockeys greater discretion to pull up mid-race was associated with a 35% reduction in falls, demonstrating that pragmatic policy adjustments can meaningfully improve equine welfare without fundamentally altering the sport. For practitioners, these findings emphasise the value of experience and preparation for late-race management, whilst highlighting that welfare outcomes need not conflict with competitive structures when rules are thoughtfully designed.
Read the full abstract on PubMed
Practical Takeaways
- •Steeplechase racing carries significantly higher fall risk than hurdle racing; risk assessment and safety protocols should reflect this distinction
- •Fatigue is a major factor—falls increase dramatically at the end of races; conditioning programs and race distance selection warrant careful consideration
- •Experienced jockeys and horses have lower fall rates; policy supporting experienced riders and gradual horse progression reduces injuries; regulatory permissiveness around early withdrawal improves welfare outcomes
Key Findings
- •Incidence rate of horse falls in jumps races was 42 per 1000 starts (95% CI, 39-45)
- •Falls in steeplechase races were 1.6 times more likely than hurdle races
- •Falls at the last three jumps were 3.1-4.4 times more likely than at the first three jumps depending on race type
- •Greater jockey age and horse experience, plus regulatory changes allowing discretionary early pull-ups, were associated with reduced fall rates (IRR 0.65)