Descriptive and Time-Series Analysis of Rabies in Different Animal Species in Mexico.
Authors: Ortega-Sánchez Reyna, Bárcenas-Reyes Isabel, Cantó-Alarcón Germinal Jorge, Luna-Cozar Jesús, E Rojas-Anaya, Contreras-Magallanes Yesenia G, González-Ruiz Sara, Cortez-García Baltazar, Milián-Suazo Feliciano
Journal: Frontiers in veterinary science
Summary
# Editorial Summary: Rabies Epidemiology in Mexico — Patterns and Predictions for Livestock Protection Rabies transmission dynamics in Mexico are largely driven by the vampire bat *Desmodus rotundus*, which circulates distinct antigenic variants (predominantly AgV11, AgV5, and AgV3) across livestock and wildlife populations in ways that shift geographically and seasonally. Researchers analysed 3,469 confirmed rabies cases reported over a multi-year period, finding that cattle accounted for 89.1% of cases, with horses representing 4.3%—substantially higher than sheep (1.5%) and other species—whilst vampire bat cases (3.1%) provided crucial indicator data for predicting spillover into domestic animals. Using time-series modelling with strong predictive accuracy (R² = 0.705), the team identified a consistent seasonal peak occurring January–March annually, with highest endemic risk concentrated along the Gulf of Mexico coast (Tamaulipas, Veracruz, Tabasco, Chiapas, and Yucatán), though concerning cases now appear in historically rabies-free regions including Chihuahua. For equine professionals, these findings underscore the importance of species-specific vaccination timing aligned to peak transmission periods and heightened vigilance in expanding risk zones, whilst the demonstrated correlation between bat and livestock case distributions offers a practical surveillance tool for anticipating outbreaks and implementing targeted regional control measures before cases escalate in spring months.
Read the full abstract on PubMed
Practical Takeaways
- •Rabies remains endemic in tropical/subtropical Mexico with seasonal winter peaks—vaccination campaigns should be intensified December–February to protect livestock before peak transmission.
- •Vampire bat distribution is the primary risk driver for domestic animal rabies in endemic regions; monitor reports from Gulf coast states and new geographic areas to identify emerging threats early.
- •Equine rabies risk is lower than cattle but still significant (4.3% of cases); ensure horses in endemic zones receive annual booster vaccination alongside pasture management to reduce bat encounters.
Key Findings
- •Rabies cases in Mexico (n=3,469) were predominantly in cattle (89.1%), with horses accounting for 4.3% and other livestock species <2% each.
- •Vampire bat (D. rotundus) distribution directly correlates with domestic and wild animal rabies case distribution, with antigenic variants AgV11, AgV5, and AgV3 predominating.
- •Time-series analysis revealed seasonal rabies peaks from January to March annually with R²=0.705 predictive accuracy.
- •Highest rabies probability zones identified on Gulf of Mexico coast (Tamaulipas, Veracruz, Tabasco, Chiapas, Yucatan), with cases increasingly observed in previously disease-free areas like Chihuahua.