Predictive Models for Equine Emergency Exploratory Laparotomy in Spain: Pre-, Intra-, and Post-Operative-Mortality-Associated Factors.
Authors: Iglesias-García Manuel, Rodríguez Hurtado Isabel, Ortiz-Díez Gustavo, De la Calle Del Barrio Jorge, Fernández Pérez Cristina, Gómez Lucas Raquel
Journal: Animals : an open access journal from MDPI
Summary
# Editorial Summary Survival outcomes following emergency colic surgery in horses vary considerably based on patient and lesion characteristics, yet few large-scale studies have examined these factors within specific equine populations. Researchers at two Spanish surgical centres analysed 566 horses undergoing exploratory laparotomy to identify pre-, intra-, and post-operative mortality predictors and develop clinically useful prognostic models. Intra-operative mortality was most strongly associated with seasonality (winter and summer peaks), age exceeding 9 years, increased distance from the surgical facility, strangulating lesions, and small intestinal involvement; hospitalisation mortality was primarily driven by lesion type (strangulating lesions conferring higher risk) and which surgical centre treated the case. The resulting predictive models demonstrated good discriminatory capacity whilst relying exclusively on readily available clinical variables—particularly colic type and lesion location—making them potentially valuable for realistic owner counselling and treatment planning in emergency colic cases. Farriers and equine professionals working alongside veterinarians should recognise that older horses, those presenting in winter or summer months, and cases with confirmed strangulation carry substantially elevated perioperative risk, information that informs both preventative management strategies and informed consent discussions.
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Practical Takeaways
- •Distance to surgical facility and seasonality should be considered when assessing urgency and prognosis in acute colic cases; strangulating lesions warrant immediate referral regardless of season
- •Older horses (>9 years) presenting with strangulating colic have significantly worse intra-operative survival outcomes and owners should be informed of increased risk during consultation
- •The predictive models developed can guide pre-operative risk stratification and prognostic counseling using only routine clinical examination data, improving informed decision-making for owners
Key Findings
- •Intra-operative mortality was significantly associated with winter/summer seasonality, age >9 years, distance from hospital, strangulating lesions, and small intestine involvement
- •Hospitalization mortality was primarily influenced by lesion characteristics (strangulating type) and differences between surgical centers
- •Multivariate predictive models using easily obtainable clinical variables demonstrated good predictive value for survival outcomes
- •Lesion type and location proved to be the most reliable characteristics for predicting mortality in equine emergency laparotomy cases