Fédération Equestre Internationale (FEI) endurance events: Riding speeds as a risk factor for failure to qualify outcomes (2012-2015).
Authors: Bennet E D, Parkin T D H
Journal: Veterinary journal (London, England : 1997)
Summary
# Editorial Summary Bennet and Parkin's analysis of over 35,000 FEI endurance competition starts between 2012 and 2015 reveals that aggressive pacing strategies, particularly in the opening loops, significantly increase elimination risk. Using multivariable logistic regression modelling across 25 risk factors, the researchers tracked riding speeds through loops 1–3 and found that faster speeds in the early stages of competition—loops 1 and 2 especially—were independently associated with failure to qualify, suggesting that front-loaded intensity compromises horses' capacity to sustain performance. Perhaps more intriguingly, sudden speed drops in loop 3 also predicted higher elimination rates, indicating that abrupt changes in pace may signal physiological fatigue or distress. These findings have direct implications for endurance coaches and veterinary support staff: they support a measured approach to early-ride pacing and suggest that real-time monitoring of speed fluctuations could serve as a practical warning system for welfare concerns mid-competition, allowing intervention before elimination becomes likely. Given endurance's emphasis on both performance and equine welfare, optimising pacing strategy based on these data—steady rather than aggressive starts, with attention to sudden decelerations—may improve both completion rates and post-event recovery outcomes.
Read the full abstract on PubMed
Practical Takeaways
- •Riders should avoid excessively fast paces in early loops (1-2) as this is a significant risk factor for elimination; pacing strategy matters more than absolute speed
- •A sudden unexplained drop in speed during loop 3 is a red flag indicator that a horse may be at risk of elimination and warrants immediate reassessment
- •Ride management based on monitoring loop-to-loop speed changes could provide early warning of horses developing problems before they are eliminated
Key Findings
- •Faster riding speeds during loops 1 and 2 were significantly associated with increased elimination risk in FEI endurance events
- •Sudden drops in riding speed during loop 3 were independently associated with increased likelihood of elimination
- •Real-time predictive modelling using speed data and speed changes between loops may identify horses at risk of failure to qualify mid-ride