A spatiotemporal model to assess the introduction risk of African horse sickness by import of animals and vectors in France.
Authors: Faverjon C, Leblond A, Hendrikx P, Balenghien T, de Vos C J, Fischer E A J, de Koeijer A A
Journal: BMC veterinary research
Summary
# Editorial Summary: African Horse Sickness Introduction Risk to France African horse sickness (AHS) poses a significant biosecurity threat to European equine populations, and Faverjon and colleagues developed a spatiotemporal quantitative risk assessment model to evaluate France's vulnerability to introduction via two primary routes: importation of infectious horses and arrival of infected Culicoides vectors through livestock trade. Using import data and epidemiological parameters from 2010–2012, the researchers calculated introduction probabilities by combining the likelihood of an infectious animal or vector entering France with the probability of subsequent establishment—defined as transmission from an imported source to at least one locally-infected equine via indigenous Culicoides. The modelling identified substantial regional variation in risk across 22 French regions, reflecting differences in vector presence, equine populations, and trading patterns. For equine practitioners and biosecurity decision-makers, this work provides a framework for understanding which pathways and regions warrant heightened surveillance and import protocols, particularly given the recent incursions of related Culicoides-borne viruses (bluetongue, Schmallenberg) into northern Europe, and highlights the importance of targeted risk-based trading restrictions and vector monitoring in high-risk zones.
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Practical Takeaways
- •Import quarantine and vector screening protocols should be evaluated against identified high-risk regions and trade pathways to prevent AHS introduction
- •Regional biosecurity measures should be prioritized in areas with highest modeled introduction risk based on livestock trade and Culicoides distribution patterns
- •Surveillance systems should focus on early detection in regions identified as vulnerable to both animal import and natural vector arrival routes
Key Findings
- •Quantitative spatiotemporal risk model developed to assess AHS introduction into France across two pathways: infectious animal importation and Culicoides vector arrival via livestock trade
- •Model incorporated probability of infectious animal/vector entry into France and probability of establishment through local equine-vector transmission over 2010-2012 data from 22 French regions
- •Risk assessment framework identifies regional variation in introduction risk based on trade patterns and vector ecology