Speed and Cardiac Recovery Variables Predict the Probability of Elimination in Equine Endurance Events.
Authors: Younes Mohamed, Robert Céline, Cottin François, Barrey Eric
Journal: PloS one
Summary
# Editorial Summary: Predicting Elimination in Endurance Events Through Cardiac Recovery Metrics Nearly 40% of horses competing in endurance events (80–160 km) are eliminated at veterinary checkpoints, predominantly due to lameness (64%) or metabolic disease (15%), yet early identification of at-risk horses remains challenging for event veterinarians. Mohamed and colleagues analysed heart rate recovery data from thousands of endurance competitions across four countries, using logistic regression modelling to determine whether cardiac and performance variables measured at one vet gate could predict elimination at subsequent checkpoints. Cardiac recovery time emerged as the strongest predictor: horses requiring more than 11 minutes for heart rate recovery at vet gates 1–2, or exceeding 13 minutes at gates 3–4, carried a 70% probability of elimination at the next gate, with the model correctly identifying 62–86% of eliminated horses across successive checkpoints (AUC 0.68–0.84). These findings suggest that systematically monitoring cardiac recovery time and average speed at each veterinary examination—rather than relying on static heart rate or clinical observation alone—could enable earlier detection of declining fitness and metabolic capacity. Implementation of this practical screening approach would support safer event management and better welfare outcomes by identifying compromised horses before acute lameness or metabolic crisis occurs.
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Practical Takeaways
- •Measure cardiac recovery time at every vet gate—horses exceeding 11-13 minutes (depending on stage) have significantly elevated elimination risk and warrant closer monitoring or withdrawal consideration
- •Use cardiac recovery time alongside average speed data to identify at-risk horses early in the event, potentially preventing welfare compromise from continued competition
- •Early detection of unfit horses using these objective variables supports evidence-based veterinary decision-making at vet gates and improves horse welfare in endurance competition
Key Findings
- •39% of horses starting endurance events were eliminated, predominantly due to lameness (64%) or metabolic disorders (15%)
- •Cardiac recovery time >11 min at vet gates 1-2 or >13 min at vet gates 3-4 predicted 70% probability of elimination at the next gate
- •Logistic regression models correctly classified 62-86% of eliminated horses across vet gates 2-5 with AUC 0.68-0.84
- •Heart rate recovery and average speed measured at previous vet gates reliably predicted elimination at subsequent vet gates